Monday, 27 April 2015

Online Polls and the LibDem Luddite Faction...

I was sent this by another LibDem activist today:

https://gritdigital.co.uk/infographics/uk-general-election/#2015-opinion-poll

It's an online poll.. one votes (and verifies one's vote as unique by Facebook). One can claim to be a voter anywhere (by inputting a postcode) but you only get one vote.. you can change your vote/seat, but presumably it cancels the old vote. 

The thing that interests me is that Greens were all over it first... and still dominate but a slow tide of other colours are appearing.. however Greens, UKIP and the SNP are in their element here and "first movers"..

When shown to one of our veteran activists he said "better off delivering Focuses".. but to me that pretty much sums up part of our strategic problem. It takes thirty seconds to vote in the poll so not doing so to "deliver Focuses" smacks more of being curmudgeonly than anything else.

The US had its "aha moment" with the Obama campaign of 2008 when the internet started to play a big role. It's playing a big role this time here but many LibDems and others are fighting the last war. The polls are garbage-in/garbage -out because people are using cellphones and either don't have landlines or won't use or answer them. Probably one third of our PPCs don't have Twitter while another third didn't establish anything until it was "too late".. Facebook likewise.. is it no surprise that that Greens are first movers on this survey and dominate..

I have encountered severe trogolodytic (even Luddite) tendencies towards technologies and new ways amongst the activist population. This election is going to bury some of the old ways and is definitely a transitional election and I expect 2020 to be very different in the way voters are approached.

I find the whole concept of this poll interesting as it is somewhat how the votes come in on election night at US elections. At this moment in time we are "winning" in five seats.. Norfolk North (no surprise), OXWAb (nice to see), Wimbledon (??), Bosworth (being contested for us by the tech savvy Mike Mullaney) and my bailiwick of NW Hants.. funny that....

Early in the day we held Cambridgeshire South East then lost it to NOC.. must be out delivering Focuses..

From being innovators in campaigning decades ago the party has become stodgy precisely because what it did between the 70s and 80s worked so well. Time for a rethink.